Identification of Seniors at Risk Tool
McCusker et al have published multiple studies on screening of ED patients. 38-43 In a prospective, observational study of ED patients aged 75 years and older, they determined predictors of repeat ED visits within 90 days by using multivariate logistic regression. 43 Twenty-four percent of patients made a repeat visit within 90 days. Predictors included male gender (OR = 7.06), living alone (OR = 10.48), and the number of self-reported problems (depression, confusion, incontinence, falls, mobility, and balance) (OR = 2.68).
The Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) screening tool was developed to improve the recognition of older ED patients who are at risk for adverse outcomes. 42 A screening questionnaire was developed from a literature review of predictors of functional decline and by adapting other questionnaires. The initial questionnaire had 27 questions on social, physical, and mental risk factors, on medical history, and on the use of medical services, medications, and alcohol. These questions were compared with validated tools, including the Geriatric Depression Scale and the CAGE questionnaire (Cut down, Annoyed by criticism, Guilty about drinking, Eye-opener). The screening questionnaire itself had good test-retest reliability; however, individual questions were more specific than sensitive and had only modest concurrent validity. The questions with the highest level of sensitivity and specificity were those on visual and hearing impairment, medications, and depression.
A second study looked at the ability of the questionnaire, or a subset of questions from it, to identify patients at risk of adverse health outcome over 6 months (adverse health outcome was defined as death, institutionalization, or a clinically significant decline in physical function). 38 This prospective observational study found that 30% of patients in the development phase had an adverse health outcome, including 10% who died, 3% who were institutionalized, and 16% who had increased functional dependence. The best subset of 6 questions (see Table 3.1) was based upon statistical analysis, as well as input from the ISAR Steering Committee. The area under the curve (AUC) for detection of an adverse outcome was 0.71 in the validation set. Two positive responses had a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 58%. Three positive responses had a sensitivity of 27% and a specificity of 81%, and four positive responses a sensitivity of 10% and a specificity of 93%.
The ISAR screening tool and the complete 27-item screening questionnaire have also been found to be predictors of return visits to the ED over 30 days (AUC = 0.63), three or more visits over 6 months (AUC = 0.68), 40 and hospital utilization over 6 months (AUC = 0.68). 39
Feeling depressed and certain diagnoses also predicted both early and frequent return. 40 A history of heart disease, having ever been married, and not drinking alcohol predicted early return, and a history of diabetes mellitus, a recent ED visit, and lack of support predicted frequent return. 40 Other predictors of high hospital utilization included age 85 or older, living alone, and poor self-reported health. 39
EmergMed 14 (Level B): Comprehensive emergency department screening of older patients is feasible and inexpensive; however, outcomes have not been affected, possibly because of low compliance with recommendations and follow-up. Potential interventions to improve compliance with recommendations and follow-up, including direct referral to geriatric teams, should be prospectively evaluated.
EmergMed 15 (Level B): The Identification of Seniors at Risk tool should be employed at independent sites to determine its value in selecting high-risk elderly patients for interventional trials of geriatric assessment.
Table 3.1The Best Subset of Questions from the ISAR Screening Tool